I recently read an article by Dave Berri over at Wages of Wins Journal. While I certainly find the conclusions interesting, I am not sure I can buy the total argument. Although I try to be fairly open-minded about these things but I guess the fanboy in me still holds out hope that a team wins. Yeah, I know, there is glaring evidence pointing to the contrary.

I haven’t attempted to test the principle for TEN+ myself but I am pretty sure it is just going to echo Berri’s conclusions. Just a quick perusal of his top-3 list, shows they are in tune with the TEN+ ratings (at least based on most valuable to the team.)

As it pertains to the Celtics, I have TEN+ ratings of 109, 142 and 135 for Jefferson, Pierce and Rondo, respectively. I do have Tony Allen (112) rated higher than Jefferson but, due to minutes played, his total value is much less. It doesn’t match up, on the 80-20 scale, though, when factoring total value. I think that is because I use minutes played to derive total value and with all the injuries, the Celtics did not meet the 80-20 mark.

I attempted to hold minutes constant, as well. Still didn’t work. So I thought back through my original formula and realized that I had already brought unadjusted TEN to starter level minutes. Eliminating that step and going basically off a per minute basis, Rondo-Pierce-Allen was worth 78.2% of the total team’s weighted production. The rest of the players, including Jefferson, accounted for 21.8%.

Now I am starting to get creeped out — like I am living a real life The Number 23.

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Posted by Hoop Geek on Saturday, August 4th, 2007 at 19:17.